World Oil Prices Jump Following OPEC Meeting

Posted September 27, 2017

The latest spike in prices is likely due to the recent announcement by the Chinese government to allow three independent producers to further import 2.7 million tonnes of crude oil in 2017.

London Brent crude for November delivery LCOc1 gained 1% to touch $59.03 a barrel, while the U.S. crude for November delivery CLc1 slipped 10 cents and traded at $52.12 per barrel, reported Reuters.

USA shale oil is "absolutely" sustainable at $50 a barrel, said Ryan Krogmeier, Chevron Corp.'s vice president of crude supply and trading.

"The market is OK, but these levels are beginning to look a little precarious", said Robin Bieber, technical chart analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.

Nigeria's oil minister said Friday that the country would be willing to cap its output, albeit at a higher level than it is now producing.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the USA, rose 0.21% to $56.55 a barrel.

Despite the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) self-congratulatory stance last week that its production cutbacks are successfully bringing about market rebalance, the call for extending those cuts intensified this week, with BP claiming it is essential to shrink inventories.

Crude oil exports to Asia from the United States are still relatively small-scale, with Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecasts estimating flows of around 261,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first eight months of the year.

Estimating that level is obviously an inexact science, but its worth noting that the two biggest months for USA crude arrivals in Asia this year were April and June.

"Fear in the market has been that OPEC production will rise dramatically", said Morse.

Futures rose as much as 1.4 percent in London to the highest since February 2.

Strong oil demand growth in emerging economies led by China and India and even from Europe is drawing down oil stockpiles faster than expected, putting the global market firmly on track to re-balance, senior oil executives said on Tuesday.

But Kuwait's Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq said on Thursday an extension may not be decided at this time. Instead of the deal falling apart, OPEC and Non-OPEC made history with the best compliance to a production cut deal in history.

"I think we all are happy to hear this news about a two-year high".

Oil prices are recovering. The EIA revised lower US oil production for 2017 from 9.35 million barrels per day to 9.25 million barrels per day a 100k barrel a day decrease. Emmanuel Kachikwu told reporters on the sidelines of the conference that Nigeria has "effectively joined" the agreement, stating that Nigeria would "cap" its output at 1.8 mb/d.

It's good news for an industry that suffered from three years of oversupply and the effects of a wrenching price collapse, from more than $100 a barrel in mid-2014 to below $40 by the end of 2015.